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Numbers are in Zuma’s favour

THE ANC has announced the final delegate numbers for its Mangaung elective conference after a meeting yesterday agreed on a formula to divide an additional 416 branch delegates between the provinces.

Published by IOL:October 3 2012​​​

ANC spokesman Jackson Mthembu said this brought the total number of voting delegates at the conference to 4 500.

With 974 delegates, KwaZulu-Natal – President Jacob Zuma’s home province – will have the majority, followed by the Eastern Cape with 676, Limpopo with 574, Gauteng with 500, Mpumalanga 467, Free State 324 and North West 234. The Western Cape will have 178 and the Northern Cape 176, Mthembu said.

Voting delegates from branches would make up 91.2 percent of the total, with the remaining 8.8 percent made up of members of the national executive committee, provincial executive committees and the ANC women’s youth and veterans’ leagues.

Each of the leagues will have 45 voting delegates, while the 82 NEC members would also have votes. Provincial executive committee members would account for 180 votes.

Analysts said yesterday the figures would make it less likely for anyone to pose a challenge to Zuma’s bid for a second term. Some cautioned however that the Mangaung leadership stakes should not be reduced to a “numbers game”.

Director for the Centre of Democracy at the University of Johannesburg, Professor Steven Friedman, said the increased number of delegates from KZN was a boost for Zuma’s campaign.

“The KZN leadership is clearly supportive of Zuma, the question is whether the branches are,” he said, adding that delegates voted as individuals. He cautioned that assuming Zuma had more support in KZN than in Gauteng was “not guaranteed”.

But Friedman said the audited membership figures largely favoured Zuma’s second-term bid.

A dissenting voice came from political analyst Kwandiwe Kondlo. He said victory for Zuma, based on the figures alone, was “not clear cut”.

“You really need to adopt a wait and see kind of attitude,” said Kondlo.

Eastern Cape provincial secretary Oscar Mabuyana, who along with other members of the provincial leadership, is backing a second term for Zuma, believes the numbers will “definitely” make a difference at Mangaung.

Asked if the figures meant victory for Zuma, Mabuyana said: “I wouldn’t really say that. But you can make your own analysis”.

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